1. Nature Pacific Winds Warming 1910-1940 Video
2. Pacific Winds Apartments
3. Global Warming 20th Century

If you ever live at the shore, one thing that crops up in 13-year cycles is what they call Red Tide. The traditional explanation I have always heard is that is caused by farming and the runoff of their pesticides that contaminate the water. I use to hear that in New Jersey and the same thing in Florida. It seems to be linked to the same people who promote Global Warming who want us to starve and stop driving to work. I would ask, where is the runoff from farmers when there are none in this area? It would go in one ear and out the other. It seemed to be more of an urban legendthat has perpetuated by telling the same lie so many times it becomes just accepted truth.

To say the least, I was shocked to actually see an article in the local newspaper, Tampa Bay Times, explaining the issue and they were not blaming the farmers. There are scientists who are actually trying to figure out what causes a Red Tide and the research is untainted because they haven’t figured out a theory governments can use to justify more taxes. They are studying how the Earth is actually much more dynamic and globally connected than anyone has ever dared to image previously.

Dec 22, 2014  Global temperatures rose quickly between 1910 and 1940. A reconstruction based on corals suggests that the Pacific trade winds were weak during this period of rapid warming, but strengthened as. Dec 22, 2014 - natural climate variability in the Atlantic region, and external factors, such. That weak trade winds and warm temperatures coincide with rapid. (1910–1940; red) and slower warming (1940–1970; blue) discussed in the text.

The subject of study is how the Sahara Desert may be to blame for environmental changes. It turns out that the Sahara Desert results in massive dust storms that are carried in the winds just as volcanic ash in the Pacific can create volcanic winters in New York City. The dust storms from the Sahara actually provide a vital nutrient source that fertilizes the rain forests in South America. They have been collecting the dust to track its movements all the way here in Florida.

What they have uncovered is that for about 100 days from spring through the fall, the winds in Africa pick up tiny dust particles from the desert and propel them high into the air and then carry them thousands of miles across the Atlantic Ocean. They travel up to 3 miles above the surface of the water. They have been landing in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico for millions of years. These dust storms have contributed to building Caribbean beaches and they have fed phytoplankton. They will even create beautiful sunsets off in Texas.

Scientists are still trying to understand the extremely complex ecosystem of the planet. They are not sure yet why patches of Red Tide algae suddenly multiply by the millions and turn the water the color of rust killing fish. These Red Tide blooms will actually begin typically 10 to 40 miles offshore. The currents and the wind move then closer to shore. The origin appears to be these clouds of dust that form and travel the same course as hurricanes. With satellite images, they can now actually visually see these massive dust storms originating in Africa.

Red Tide also takes place in the Pacific. What is interesting is how in California they have been using Red Tide claiming this is proof of Global Warming. The argument has been that the algae blooms during the period of warm water and thus instead of farmers, they blame people driving to work.

There, the Pacific Ocean undergoes what is called upwelling. Upwelling is the process when winds carry deep, cold nutrient-rich water to the surface of the ocean. This process of upwelling mixes with ocean currents making for an area rich in microbial and organismal diversity. There are three currents off the Pacific coast that impact this mixing that takes place. The first is the California Current (CC), which carries cold, oxygen and nutrient-rich water southward along the Pacific coast. The second is the California Undercurrent (UC), which originates from the Eastern Pacific near the equator and brings warm, saline, phosphate and oxygen-poor water northward. The final current is the Davidson Current (DC), which occurs in the fall and winter bringing current northward.

The Red Tide that hits San Diego produced night glowing algaethat is beautiful. The cause of this unusual phenomenon was a tiny organism called Lingulodinium polyedrum which is a type of algae which is emerging cyclically but is also a Red Tide.

I have always sought to explore looking for ancient texts of contemporary accounts to help clarify cyclical trends. I came across Fray Diego Lopez de Collogudo, who was a Franciscan monk and historian in Yucatan, Mexico. Collogudo documented a massive fish kill that occurred in 1648. He described the following (translated from Spanish):

A short time later, in the city of Merida, for several days, especially in the evenings when the wind blows from the sea, came a foul odor that at times could barely be tolerated, as it penetrated all parts. No one knew the cause of the odor until a ship from Spain encountered a mountain of dead fish near the coast. Dead fish were heaped on shore, and this is where the foul odor emanated.

(id/ Lopez Collogudo, D., 1688. Historia de Yucatan. Publicaciones del H. Ayuntamento de Campeche. Campeche, Mexico.)

There was another first fish kill in the Gulf of Mexico chronicled by a government official which took place in 1792 in the city of Veracruz, Mexico. The official’s name was Lerdo de Tejada who reported the following from 10 November 1792 (translated from Spanish):

For several days now multitudes of dead fish have washed onto the beaches of Veracruz and some violent deaths have occurred to which were attributed to the sale of these fish. The governor decreed a ban on the sale of all types of fish from rivers and those fish from the sea could not be sold until the proper authorities inspected them. This same epidemic of dead fish occurred repeatedly in this same port.

(id/ Lerdo de Tejada, M.M., 1850. Apuntes Historicos de la Heroica Ciudad de Veracruz. Imprenta de Ignacio Cumplido, C. Reeditados por la Oficina de Máquinas de la Secretar´ıa de Educación Pública, Mexico, 1940)

Personally, if I can find accounts of the same phenomenon centuries before fertilizers and driving to work, I think it is safe to presume we may just be dealing with a natural phenomenon that is more supported by the satellite images of dust storms that follow the same path as hurricanes. In this case, we may not even be dealing with something that is caused by climate change. I ran some preliminary Red Tide events into the computer and out popped the 8.6-year frequency and particularly intense period on 13-year cycles. Just interesting to say the least.

Abstract

Of the rise in global atmospheric temperature over the past century, nearly 30% occurred between 1910 and 1940 when anthropogenic forcings were relatively weak¹. This early warming has been attributed to internal factors, such as natural climate variability in the Atlantic region, and external factors, such as solar variability and greenhouse gas emissions. However, the warming is too large to be explained by external factors alone and it precedes Atlantic warming by over a decade. For the late twentieth century, observations and climate model simulations suggest that Pacific trade winds can modulate global temperatures^2,3,4,5,6,7, but instrumental data are scarce in the early twentieth century. Here we present a westerly wind reconstruction (1894–1982) from seasonally resolved measurements of Mn/Ca ratios in a western Pacific coral that tracks interannual to multidecadal Pacific climate variability. We then reconstruct central Pacific temperatures using Sr/Ca ratios in a coral from Jarvis Island, and find that weak trade winds and warm temperatures coincide with rapid global warming from 1910 to 1940. In contrast, winds are stronger and temperatures cooler between 1940 and 1970, when global temperature rise slowed down. We suggest that variations in Pacific wind strength at decadal timescales significantly influence the rate of surface air temperature change.

Access optionsAccess options

Subscribe to Journal

Nature Pacific Winds Warming 1910-1940 Video

Get full journal access for 1 year

All prices include VAT for Germany.

Rent or Buy article

Get time limited or full article access on ReadCube.

from$8.99

All prices are NET prices.

References

1. 1.

   Myhre, G. D.et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 8 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

2. 2.

   Trenberth, K. E. & Fasullo, J. T.An apparent hiatus in global warming?Earth’s Future1, 19–32 (2013).

3. 3.

   Meehl, G. A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. T., Hu, A. & Trenberth, K. E.Model-based evidence of deep ocean heat uptake during surface temperature hiatus periods. Nature Clim. Change1, 360–364 (2011).

4. 4.

   England, M. H.et al.Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nature Clim. Change4, 222–227 (2014).

5. 5.

   L’Heureux, M. L., Lee, S. & Lyon, B.Recent multidecadal strengthening of the Walker circulation across the tropical Pacific. Nature Clim. Change3, 571–576 (2013).

6. 6.

   Meehl, G. A., Hu, A., Arblaster, J. M., Fasullo, J. & Trenberth, K. E.Externally forced and internally generated decadal climate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. J. Clim.26, 7298–7310 (2013).

7. 7.

   Kosaka, Y. & Xie, S. P.Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature501, 403–407 (2013).

8. 8.

   Chen, X. & Tung, K. K.Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration. Science345, 897–903 (2014).

9. 9.

   Hansen, J., Ruedy, R., Sato, M. & Lo, K.Global surface temperature change. Rev. Geophys.48, RG4004 (2010).

10. 10.

    Bindoff, N. L.et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (eds Stocker, T. F. et al.) Ch. 10 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013).

11. 11.

    Mitchell, J. F. B.et al. in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis (eds Houghton, J. T. et al.) Ch. 12 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001).

12. 12.

    Hegerl, G. C.et al. in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (eds Solomon, S. D. et al.) 663–745 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).

13. 13.

    Schlesinger, M. E. & Ramankutty, N.An oscillation in the global climate system of period 65–70 years. Nature367, 723–726 (1994).

14. 14.

    Wu, R. & Xie, S. P.On equatorial Pacific surface wind changes around 1977: NCEP-NCAR reanalysis versus COADS observations. J. Clim.16, 167–173 (2003).

15. 15.

    Shen, G. T., Linn, L. J., Campbell, T. M., Cole, J. E. & Fairbanks, R. G.A chemical indicator of trade wind reversal in corals from the western tropical Pacific. J. Geophys. Res.97, 12698–12697 (1992).

16. 16.

    Shen, G. T. & Boyle, E. A.Determination of lead, cadmium and other trace metals in annually-banded corals. Chem. Geol.67, 47–62 (1988).

17. 17.

    Shen, G. T.et al.Paleochemistry of manganese in corals from the Galapagos Islands. Coral Reefs10, 91–100 (1991).

18. 18.

    Inoue, M.et al.Evaluation of Mn and Fe in coral skeletons (Porites spp.) as proxies for sediment loading and reconstruction of 50 yrs of land use on Ishigaki Island, Japan. Coral Reefs33, 363–373 (2014).

19. 19.

    Yu, L., Weller, R. A. & Liu, W. T.Case analysis of a role of ENSO in regulating the generation of westerly wind bursts in the western equatorial Pacific. J. Geophys. Res.108, 2002JC001498 (2003).

20. 20.

    Vecchi, G. A. & Harrison, D. E.Tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, El Niño, and equatorial westerly wind events. J. Clim.13, 1814–1830 (2000).

21. 21.

    Compo, G. P.et al.The twentieth century reanalysis project. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.137, 1–28 (2011).

22. 22.

    Cole, J. E., Fairbanks, R. G. & Shen, G. T.Recent variability in the Southern Oscillation: Isotopic results from a Tarawa Atoll coral. Science260, 1790–1793 (1993).

23. 23.

    Smith, T. M., Reynolds, R. W., Peterson, T. C. & Lawrimore, J.Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land–ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J. Clim.21, 2283–2296 (2008).

24. 24.

    Fedorov, A. V.The response of the coupled tropical ocean-atmosphere to westerly wind bursts. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc.128, 1–23 (2002).

25. 25.

    Harrison, D. E. & Chiodi, A. M.Pre- and post-1997/98 westerly wind events and equatorial Pacific cold tongue warming. J. Clim.22, 568–581 (2009).

26. 26.

    Quinn, W. H., Neal, V. T. & De Mayolo, S. E. A.El Niño occurrences over the past four and a half centuries. J. Geophys. Res.92, 14449–1446 (1987).

27. 27.

    NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) (NOAA Climate Prediction Center); http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

28. 28.

    Parker, D. E.et al.Decadal to interdecadal climate variability and predictability and the background of climate change. J. Geophys. Res.112, D18115 (2007).

29. 29.

    Schrag, D. P.Rapid analysis of high-precision Sr/Ca ratios in corals and other marine carbonates. Paleoceanography14, 97–102 (1999).

30. 30.

    Hartten, L. M.Synoptic settings of westerly wind bursts. J. Geophys. Res.101, 16997–17019 (1996).

Pacific Winds Apartments

Acknowledgements

Global Warming 20th Century

We thank M. Price, S. Hlohowskyj, S. Lemieux, C. Hollenbeck and S. Sanchez for support in producing Mn/Ca and Sr/Ca data sets, and S. Worley and J. Comeaux for aid in obtaining weather station data. We are grateful for discussions with J. Overpeck, J. L. Russell, W. Beck, P. DiNezio and C. Deser. This research was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office (awards NA16RC0082 and NA08OAR4310682), the US NSF (awards OCE-9158496 and EaSM2-1243125), The University of Arizona Department of Geosciences, the Philanthropic Education Organization, UK NERC (Grant NER/GR3/12021), and the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program of the US-DOE Office of Biological & Environmental Research Cooperative Agreement (DE-FC02-97ER62402).

Author information

Author notes

1. • Diane M. Thompson

   Present address: National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA.

Affiliations

1. Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA

   • Diane M. Thompson
   • & Julia E. Cole

2. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA

   • Julia E. Cole

3. Proposal Exponent, Seattle, Washington 98177, USA

   • Glen T. Shen

4. School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, UK

   • Alexander W. Tudhope

5. Climate & Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado 80307, USA

   • Gerald A. Meehl

Authors

1. • Nature Research journals•
   • PubMed•
2. • Nature Research journals•
   • PubMed•
3. • Nature Research journals•
   • PubMed•
4. • Nature Research journals•
   • PubMed•
5. • Nature Research journals•
   • PubMed•

Contributions

This study was initially conceived by G.T.S. and J.E.C., and Tarawa Mn/Ca time series data were generated by G.T.S. D.M.T. compiled and analysed Mn/Ca calibration data, and performed quantitative and comparative data analyses. A.W.T. conceived the Jarvis study, with D.M.T., J.E.C. and A.W.T. contributing to sampling, Sr/Ca analysis and interpretation. D.M.T., G.A.M. and J.E.C. led the comparisons of instrumental and palaeodata. D.M.T. and J.E.C. wrote the manuscript, and all authors contributed to discussion, interpretation and editing of the manuscript.

Competing interests

The authors declare no competing financial interests.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Diane M. Thompson.

Supplementary information

PDF files

1. 1.

   Supplementary Information

Rights and permissions

To obtain permission to re-use content from this article visit RightsLink.

About this article

Publication history

DOI

Further reading

• Cycles in oceanic teleconnections and global temperature change

  Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2019)

• Surface ocean pH variations since 1689 CE and recent ocean acidification in the tropical South Pacific

  Nature Communications (2018)

• Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic

  Nature Climate Change (2018)

• The response of vegetation growth to shifts in trend of temperature in China

  Journal of Geographical Sciences (2017)

• Tropospheric circulation during the early twentieth century Arctic warming

  Climate Dynamics (2017)

Article Tools

Nature GeoscienceNews & Views

Climate science: Pacemakers of warming